Post-Pandemic Retail

I had written a version of this during the first wave of lockdown for work-related purposes. Now I have removed references about our internal stuff and created a lite-version for publishing externally. Several more ‘stories’ have emerged from the COVID ‘setting’ now since I first wrote this though. Not really updating it much with those since I know that will also go stale in a while, ha!

Disclaimer and Epistemic status: Highly speculative, contains rough edges, and ideas/hypotheses not (yet) backed by data. Many areas are half-complete or could be plain incorrect, and left for the domain-experts in those areas to correct and fill-in.

Introduction

We (whole of humanity) are in a state the ancient Greeks might call “between Scylla and Charybdis” or ancient Indians might call “Trishanku heaven”, a “lockdown limbo” if you will. A state where we know things are not completely safe, nor is it completely unsafe, edging towards normalcy, even if that is possible. The pandemic is not the “story” anymore, it has become the “setting” for more detailed stories to emerge (don’t remember which but got this from Twitter). That there will be “new normal” for many aspects of our lives post the pandemic is now universally accepted. But when this becomes the “setting”, there might be a many new-normals that come one after another depending on the latest “story” that we should adapt to.

What exactly is the new normal is something the whole world (including experts and policy makers) are figuring as we go. Many of the interventions we come across by governments and even corporations (as well-intentioned as they are) seem more a case of do-something-itis than being done with conviction. While a lot of interventions arise from the “seen”, the “unseen” elements unwrap themselves one by one as days and weeks progress (seen-and-unseen in the Bastiat-ian sense). For example: The “seen” element was that masks might go out-of-supply for medical professionals if people start hoarding it so let us advice not to use masks. The “unseen” element was the high R-Nought value of the virus which made it spread a lot of higher than what would have been if everyone were wearing a mask.

Closer home (figuratively speaking), within the online-retail industry, increase in purchase of groceries online is the “seen”, while increase in number of refunds offered by customer support team due to damages to perishables might be the “unseen”. While apparel sales increasing in high fashion category is the “seen”, the need to quarantine returns could be the “unseen”. While price gouging is the seen and we address it, sellers starting to classify items as collectibles is the unseen.

We are lucky (if that is the suitable word here) to not be the ones deciding policies and protocols impacting millions of peoples’ lives (literally “lives”, not the cliched tech-enriches-lives). However, as builders of online products, we do get to influence what the “new normal” is, in some form.

This document is an attempt to hold a crystal ball and anticipate customer needs and behavior post-pandemic, and how online retail should evolve to suit that world. I focus a little more on the product details page which I understand better than others.

As we do, a few guiding principles shall be (a) To not only look at the ‘seen’ but also anticipate the ‘unseen’ (b) As much as things change, what will not change? What are things that will get spring back to the median? (c)Be aware of the Chesterton’s fences and not remove anything until we know why it was put in the first place.

Source

New normal in general

Beyond retail as an industry, following things could be the new-normal, generally speaking:

1. Social Distancing and its various forms: Different ways of greetings / showing love; Limits on passengers in public transport; purely appointment-based shopping/hospitality services; redesigned workspaces; more “wireless/touchless” stuff (payments, battery charging) and so on. The dawn of “contactless economy”. One “unseen” element already being noticed in China is the increase in road traffic: Apparently, more people use cars than public transport.
2. Faster adoption of “remote-tech” in health and education industries: ‘Software eating the world’ will be in steroids for these industries. Home Schooling (or semi home schooling); More universities offering online classes; More tele-consultations with doctors; more home delivery of prescription medicines; and so on
3. Cleanliness as a virtue: Education on coronavirus may have done to the larger populace what Ignaz Semmelweis did to doctors in the 1800s — To focus on “washing hands” regularly. It might really become next to godliness than just being a proverb. Food delivery businesses and restaurant reviews have already started highlighting the “hygiene” rating of the restaurants one step before the ratings for ambience, taste, friendliness etc. They will be visible markers of cleanliness and the cleaning practices everywhere. And how ‘touchless’ their business is (Contactless Delivery/Curbside pickup etc.)
4. Ambient Computing as a real thing: While AR/VR have had many false starts and might even stare at a “VR winter” now, this is the time for real use-cases to emerge for these technologies. Imagine using these tech in both health and education fields that will go remote. People with Facebook Portal device apparently find it more convenient already for video chats
5. Commerce: And of course, the domain of “commerce” is getting more online at a much faster pace. Like many charts from analysts have shown, online grocery grew more in the first 6 weeks of the lockdown than the past 6 years. Is consumerism changing in a big way? These are really days when decades are happening. Let us go a bit deeper into this considering various stakeholders of us.

New normal for Brands/Sellers

With increased customer attention towards online shopping, some brands may want to double down on existing platforms (like Beauty brands, High Fashion brands). Other brands may want to move away from the top online stores and forming their own stores, given there is an informal alliance and rebel-incursions that seems to be forming with a host of companies offering a piece or two of the overall solution (from discovery to delivery).

Notwithstanding their stance, when I think of what brands might want to show in their retail presence in the post-pandemic future, following patterns emerge:

• They may want to convey their “differentiation” vis-a-vis their competitors in aspects of “health/hygiene” etc.
• They may want to highlight their products’ benefits using the detail page with their own tech (say, AR/VR for a furniture product; an AR try-on for a beauty product; Livestreaming by an influencer of a new product; etc.),
• They may want to potentially own a widget (or say embedding a YouTube/Instagram page) in the online stores;
• Sellers (more than brands) might want to highlight their ratings and their social distancing practices better.
• Many lifestyle/DIY/FIRE businesses hitherto present only in Pinterest, Etsy etc. may move to all possible channel.

New Normal for Shoppers

Just the word “Shopper” might not be enough for us to think through what is normal for this segment — They come in all sizes, shapes, behaviors, and expectations.

• New-to-Online Purchase customers: A whole set of customers will likely make their first purchase online. Or they just made in the last few weeks for lockdown for essential products but will start doing it for non-essentials henceforth. We should build our CX such that so new customers are not overwhelmed. May be offer a quick walk-through of the page during their first visit to every part of the page?
• New-to-Category customers: A lot of customers might be making their first purchase in Groceries, first-time customers to apparel may try everyday wear before they venture to hi-fashion, and so on. Can we do a walk-through of the page for such customers during their first visit to that page — highlighting elements of that category suitable for them — not as detailed as the new-to-online customers but a lite version of it, customized to the category in question? If we do not address frustrations with new-to-category consumers, they may never return. The ‘seen’ could be the new customers to a category; the ‘unseen’ could be the simmering tension (more people face issues with grocery purchase than otherwise, which might push them to 7/11 kind of stores)

We can even introduce new ways customers discover products:

• Live streaming by influencers: This is apparently a thing in China for a while. How much of it is closer to the culture versus availability? Top VCs may believe that live streaming will be the one that breaks the big tech’s dominance, but my hypothesis is that this will remain a niche.
• Video Shopping: For categories that remain high-touch, video shopping might become the alternative to in-store visits. Luxury brands are offering personalized video consultation.
• Redesigned Layout: How would the layout change for shoppers who come from the world of social apps like Snapchat, Instagram, Pinterest etc.?
• Moving prices and availability: As prices and availability of products may shift due to extended supply chain disruptions, how would the information we provide change?
• Brands, Influencers: The recession in 2008 gave rise to websites like Wirecutter, Strategist, BuzzFeed Reviews etc. Will they get solidified post the pandemic? Or has the dynamic changed now and customers do not need those anymore? How will retail pages change to accommodate widgets from external sources?
• Guided Selection: With more shoppers reaching product pages directly than before, is it time to provide guided evaluation widgets, refinements and ingresses to search functionality from there?
• AR/VR experiences: As outlined above, there seems to be a winter setting in for some parts of these technologies but this might also be the time when solutions come out of the trough of disillusionment. Is this something to be left to specific categories (like Furniture) or we build a generic experience available across categories?
• Voice Activated delivery: In places where we need a “signature” / “PIN” that involves a touch, customers may expect a touch-less / voice-activated experience.
• Product Page as a service: Would product page as a service make sense, where a social app requests for details and the API provides a fully-formed product page as HTML back to it, with prominent add-to-cart and add-to-wishlist options there?

Select Good Reads

• Cleanliness as brand value
• Customer behavior and attitudes in China, post the end of lockdown
• Trend of shopping in live streaming apps.
• Retail Consumers after COVID
• Tiny Digital Businesses may become popular
• Fashion Industry’s Digital Transformation, Now or Never (McKinsey)
• Thinking about the next normal (McKinsey)
• Flour sales are rising since more people bake but flour sales from restaurants are dropping more than the rise.
• Retailers think they will be wrong in half of their assumptions when they reopen.
• Passion economy moving beyond digital services
• Returns of apparel
• Fashion Industry considers shifting of seasons
• COVID recovery index in retail, category-wise, week on week
• Interview with Amazon Pay VP (Patrick Gauthier) on post-pandemic retail. “The future of retail, he noted, will be about what it has always been about: a conversation between merchants and consumers”
• Economist calls it as BC (before Corona) and AD (after domestication)
• eCommerce boom makes warehouses hot property
• How will we remember this after the pandemic (Discover magazine) — “motivated misremembering”
• Lockdowns and relaxations for physical retailers — country-wise narrative

A cartoon to end this essay: